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Modeling the Evolutionary and Public Health Impacts of HIV Adaptation in Response to Vaccination

Despite the existence of effective methods for prevention, HIV continues to be a global health crisis. The need for an HIV vaccine remains paramount. The phase III RV144 vaccine trial is the only trial of an HIV vaccine that showed modest success in preventing infection, with an estimated 31% vaccine efficacy at 3.5 years post- enrollment. However, vaccines can result in the emergence and spread of vaccine-resistant strains, via natural selection and strain replacement. The potential for such population-level adaptation in HIV has not been considered in HIV vaccine-related modeling studies. In this project, we will create a novel modeling framework that integrates HIV evolutionary processes into mathematical models of HIV epidemiology and vaccination. This approach will lead to more accurate predictions of vaccine impact, improved vaccine design, and ultimately greater public health impact for vaccination programs.

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Active Dates 
09/01/2017 to 08/31/2022
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